1st and 2nd Half Draws & Exact Goals
Two popular bets are the 1st half Draw and 2nd Half draw bets.
Just knowing that more goals are scored in second halves should be a clear indication that 1st half draw prediction has to be easier than second half.
With fewer goals scored, the first half draw is more likely.
What are the factors that produce draws ?
An overly defensive team (Man United under van Gaal) produced 11 half time draws at home (2015//2016 season).
Ten of these games were NIL-NIL. They had 9 second half draws. Seven of these were NIL-NIL.
They made great draw candidates in 2015/2016 but will be a different ball-game under Mourinho in 2016/2017.
Importance of GPG averages.
The stats shown here show the home goals scored and conceded averages.
It's simple. Teams that draw halves, have very similar for and against averages.
A perfect example of a high DRAWING 1st half team (in 2015/2016) was CHIEVO in Seria A.
They had 8/8 1st half draws in their last 8 home games.
They don't concede goals, and don't score many either.
St Etienne (in Ligue 1) and Hertha Berlin in the Bundesliga 1 were also excellent HT draw candidates.
AVOID THOSE TEAMS WITH BIG DIFFERENCES IN HT GOAL NUMBERS, if betting the HT draw !
Away Teams that keep HT Clean sheets
Defensively strong away teams that start slowly are excellent HT draw candidates.
If you can find a combination of two low scoring teams, that are definsively strong, you have a potential bet winner.
Offensive and Defensive imbalance
In most cases a team that is DEFENSIVELY strong, achieves this by being OFFENSIVELY WEAK.
It is really an imbalance in team selection and tactics.
Man United under van Gaal were a perfect example. Against Norwich (at Home)
they played 2-wing backs, 3 central defenders and 2 holding mid-fielders. Their goal production was basically nothing, yet they lost the game 1-2.
Bad manager decisions and tactics cost them this game and potential Champions League Football next season.