The bookies give you odds. The first goal is to convert these odds into probability.

The objective is to find situations where the Bookmakers have their prices
wrong.
It happens because they are just trying to create an juicy market
with lots of betting.

Your goal is to find situations where the
IMPLIED odds are inaccurate. The implied odds can be calculated (see the 2
examples below).

Then use our tools such as over
Goals to find teams that give you a statistical advantage.

Example: Aston Villa vs Man United

bet365 1×2 odds are 5/1 | 16/5 | 8/15

So lets figure out what the bookmakers think. Realise that the bookmakers
are just making a market that is good for people to bet in. They want to generate
bets and create a market.

Step 1 (Convert
the odds into decimal and add 1 to each)

So 5 becomes 6, 16/5 becomes 4.2 and and 8/15 becomes 1.53 . So the odds can
also be shown as ;

Aston Villa v Man United (6 | 4.2 | 1.53)


Step 2 (divide 1 by this number for each outcome)

Home win probability: 1 / 6 = 16.6%
Draw probability: 1 / 4.2 = 23.8%

Away win probability: 1 / 1.53 = 65.4%

For a Total of (16.6 + 23.8
+ 65.4) = 105.8%

So the BOOKMAKERS THINK
Aston Villa have a 16.6% chance of winning this game. They believe United
should win 65% of the time.

You now need to find situations where
the STATISTICS are in your favor, and are greater than the bookmakers implied
odds.

If you can do this you are in the ADVANTAGE BETTING ZONE.

Example: Arsenal vs Fulham

bet365 odds are Over :13/20 and Under :6/5 for over/under
2.5 match goals

Calculating all the possible outcomes of the match must equal 100%.


Step 1 (Convert odds into decimal and add 1 to each)

Arsenal v Fulham (1.65 | 2.2)

Step 2 (divide
1 by this number for each outcome)

Over 2.5 Goals : 1 / 1.65 = 60%

Under 2.5 Goals: 1 / 2.2 = 45%


For a Total of (60 + 45) = 105%


So we now KNOW what the BOOKMAKERS THINK.

The difference between 100 and our calculation is the bookmakers ‘FAT’ or overround. It is why they don’t really care what happens, they just want to generate a market.

It is also another reason to discount the bookmakers ‘favorite’ when the odds are quite close. They don’t know what will happen…

Now use our Over Goals toolkit to find those teams that are exceeding the bookmakers IMPLIED ODDS.