Highest Scoring Half Goals stats
Nearly all the bookmakers offer a highest Scoring Half Bet.
It's a straight forward bet. Which half will have the highest number of goals? It's a tough bet to win because there are three outcomes for your bet.
You give yourself the best chance of winning such a bet if you have the right statistics at your fingertips.
Normally games have more 2nd half goals, but sometimes a team turns the norm on it's head.
Everton are a perfect example of this in 2015/2016. They had 10 home games finish with more 1st half than 2nd half goals.
The did not have a single home league game that had equal 1st half and 2nd half goals (in 2015/2016).
Highest Scoring Half - tough to win
In my opinion the highest scoring half bet is a tough one to win. I think a few factors are against you ;
1) There are 3 outcomes. This makes it more tricky than a bet with 2 outcomes.
2) The odds are a little too low. It is only worth taking a bet when you figure that your calculated probability outcome, exceeds that reflected by the bookmakers price.
A example is Celtic v Astana Champions league quali game 16-08-2017
Highest half 1st odds are 3.1
Highest half 2nd odds are 2.1
Draw odds are 3.5
If you divide 1 by odds you get bookmakers expectation. SO 1/3.1 = 32.3% 1/2.1 = 47.6% 1/3.5 = 25.6%
If you believe the probability % is higher than what the bookmakers have it at, it may be worth taking the bet.
Highest Scoring Half - 1st Half
You need to find teams that score more 1st half than 2nd half goals. These stats show you these numbers. A big negative number (-8) indicates a team the scores more 1st half goals.
Last year in the English Premier League Swansea scored 8 more 1st half goals than 2nd half goals (14 versus 6).
They had a negative 8 goal differential. This translated into them halving 8 home games finsish with highest scoring half-1st.
Chelsea had the lowest number of 1st half highest score games in the EPL last season. Just once in nineteen games did they have more 1st half goals.
When you see how badly they played in 2nd halves of games it becomes clear. In the 1st half of home league games last season they conceded 9 goals.
In the 2nd half they conceded 21 goals. Their 2nd half defense was terrible (league leading 21 goals). COmpare it to Arsenal, who conceded just 4 second half goals, at home all season in the league.
Arsenal's goal stats by half were very similar, and it is why they had 9 games finsih equal 1st and 2nd half goals last seaon.
Highest Half Betting - Profits
The only way to make any profit with these types of bets, is to find those teams that are having strange seasons. Realistically one of three scenarios;
Teams that are starting well and fading
Teams with equal halves performance
Teams starting slowly and playing well in the 2nd half
You need to have the following types of combinations to win;
Big differences between 1st half and 2nd half goal numbers
Big differences in Scoring goals (by Half), and conceding goals by Half
If you are looking for an equal goals by half winner, you need consistent goal numbers by half.
In my experience, this is not a bet that can be taken that often.
You need the above factors to be working in your favor, as well as the right match-up between two teams that have similar characteristics (one home and the other away).
It simply does not happen that often. You need stats that will give you the extremes, because the average teams will lose you money here.
Soccer-Betbrain gives you access to these stats with this stats-toolkit !
Being able to view stats by X-number of games, is critical. If you look to far back, the form becomes irrelevant.
Understand that a teams form and goal production changes during the season. You need to become aware of these changes, before the bookmakers reflect it in their prices.
Realistically, being 1 step ahead of them will win you money !
My feeling is that you should not be looking beyond 6 games (of history), and should definitely be dividing form up (Home and Away).
This is also a bet that you need to be careful with, especially early season, when all your stats are based on the end of last season.