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Home Wins vrs Pre Match odds


What is an average winning price ?

The bookmakers give a price for the Home Win, Draw and Away Win before a game. The average home win price is the average price for a teams home wins. So, if they won 6 times at home, the pre-match odds for those 6 games are added together and divided by 6, to get an average.

A strong betting candidate consistently combines WINS and a good PRICE. So Leicester winning games at decent odds last year would have been strong.

Look, everyone knows about Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and PSG. At home these teams win more than they lose. The problem you have is that the odds for the home win are low.

It does not mean you can't win. It just means you are risking more to win less.
To make money you need find those teams that are winning games, at higher odds. But these stats could be slightly misleading. If a team pulls off one or two surprise results, the numbers get bloated.

Ideally, you want to find teams that consistently perform and their average odds level. ie. How consistent is a team at different odds levels ?

You need to find the surprise teams that are doing very well (exceeding expectations, and bookmakers price), and the teams that are underperforming at low prices.

Find the teams exceeding expectations early !

It also helps to avoid those teams that are underperforming and losing you money.
Underperforming is losing or drawing when they are expected to win.

Which teams are the bookmakers underpricing ?
Which teams are the exceeding expectations ?
Which teams are overpriced betting landmines ?

Which teams deliver consistent results at certain odds levels ?

Looking at the EPL last year, you can easily see that Liverpool underperformed. They won 8 of 19 games at home. The bookmakers had them priced down. Only 2 of those 8 wins were near or better than even money. They drew with Newcastle, WBA, Sunderland and Norwich at really low odds. Each of those draws was a betting disaster !

You would have been better off putting money on Stoke or Swansea to win home games instead. They had the same win record as Liverpool, at much better odds.

This tool also lets you select stats using the last X number of games.
Results longer than 5 games ago have lesser relevance. So for short term form, you need to look short term ! Not more than 4 or 5 home or away games.

You can also choose games by starting match odds. So if you choose the EPL, and select home win odds of .7, you could see that Spurs (with 7 wins in 9), delivered best performance.

Man United conceded just 3 goals in 11 games at home (at odds of .7 or less for the home win). They had 9 cleansheets at that odds level ! Betting the NO to both teams to score would have won 9 of 11 bets!

These stats given you hidden gems, but you have to read between the lines.

The best 3 performers in Europe last season, at home, at odds of 0.7 or less ?

Club Brugge won 12 of 12 games at average of .36
Benfica won 14 of 14 games at average of .22
Monaco won 5 of 5 games at a average of .45

3 stinkers - AC Milan, winning just 2 of 7 games at odds below 0.7 !

Chelsea and Marseille would have also been painful betting wise last season