This weeks Tips


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  2015-04-03         Time 15:00:00      
Brighton Norwich
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4 Best bets for this weekend 2015-03-14.

After analysing every game for the upcoming week, a list of the best 4 picks for the week will be produced. These are the best bets I can find, based on odds and statistical evidence. The objective is to have a win rate of better than 65% for the rest of the season. I started doing this on the weekend of 2014-11-21 and will continue it until the end of the season.

Tottenham v Leicester 2015-03-21
Leicester have been very poor away from home defensively. They have conceded at least 2 goals in a game in 9 of their last 10 away games. They have an additional problem of not being able to keep the game tight in the 1st half. They have conceded a 1st half goal in 7 of their last 10 away games.
Spurs are scoring goals at home, but have fallen a little off the CL race. They have also been poor defensively in the 1st half of games, conceding a 1st half goal in 8 of their last 10 home league games. (Arsenal have not conceded a 1st half goal in 10 home games !) Tottenham lead the EPL in average goals per game in their last 10 1st half home games (avg is 1.8).
PREDICTION : Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.73)


Southampton v Burnley 2015-03-21
Southampton have not blown any team off the park at home. They have managed 3 goals in a game, just once in their last 10 home games (3-0 Over Everton). They have conceded home goals against quality opponents ( Liverpool scored 2, Man United 2 and Man City 3). The lesser teams have struggled for goals, and I expect Burnley to struggle as well. Burnley tried playing a more attacking away style, but they conceded goals and did'nt win a game. The only way for them to get anything here is to keep it tight, and try and sneak a win/draw in a low scoring game.
PREDICTION : Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.85)


Liverpool v Man United 2015-03-22
Traditional rivalry should produce a great game. Neither team can really afford to lose it. However, United come into the game on the back of a terrific performance against Tottenham. A formation that finally worked for van Gaal. Does he have the belief to stick with it !
United's away form is very suspect. Hard to beat but they exhibit some crazy stats. They are the only team in the premier league that has not won a 1st half away in 11 starts. They have scored just 3 1st half goals in 11 away games. Only Hull have scored fewer (2). They have 4 clean sheets away all season, but have only failed to score 3 times. Liverpool have scored 2 or more goals in each of their last 7 home games, and are undefeated in 9 at home. PREDICTION : Both teams to score (odds 1.75)


Feyenoord v PSV Eindhoven 2015-03-22
Both teams are full of goals. PSV with excellent scoring numbers on the road, while Feyenoord have scored 2 or more goals in each of their last 10 at home. Scoring should not be a problem here. Head to Head these teams seem to play open football, and generate high scoring games. 5 of the last 6 meetings have gone over 2.5 goals. Just one game of the last 6 meetings has finished 0-0 at the half.
PREDICTION : Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.73)


TOP 4 RESULTS SO FAR ...

Match DateHome TeamAway TeamPredictionScoreOddsRes
2015-03-22LiverpoolMan UnitedBoth teams to score1-21.78
2015-03-22FeyenoordPSV EindhoveOver 2.5 Goals2-11.70
2015-03-21AZ AlkmaarCambuurBoth teams to score3-11.67
2015-03-21SouthamptonBurnleyUnder 2.5 Goals2-01.85
2015-03-21TottenhamLeicesterOver 2.5 Goals4-31.73
2015-03-15WolfsburgFreiburgHome win HT & FT3-01.90
2015-03-15Man United TottenhamOver 2.5 Goals3-01.80
2015-03-15ChelseaSouthamptonUnder 2.5 Goals1-11.85
2015-03-14ArsenalWest HamHome win HT & FT3-02.10
2015-03-07AugsburgWolfsburgOver 2.5 Goals1-01.70
2015-03-04NewcastleMan UnitedBoth teams to score0-11.80
2015-03-04LiverpoolBurnleyOver 2.5 Goals2-01.65
2015-03-01CesenaUdineseBoth teams to score1-01.90
2015-03-01LiverpoolMan CityOver 2.5 Goals2-11.78
2015-03-01Werder BremeWolfsburgOver 2.5 Goals3-51.57
2015-02-28HoffenheimMainzOver 2.5 Goals2-01.67
2015-02-23NapoliSassuoloBoth teams to score2-01.83
2015-02-22TottenhamWest HamHome Win2-21.80
2015-02-22ElcheReal Madrid1st half over 1.5 goals0-02.10
2015-02-22LyonNantesOver 2.5 Goals1-02.05
2015-02-21MainzEin FrankfurOver 2.5 Goals3-11.70
2015-02-20StuttgartDortmundAway Win2-31.75
2015-02-14LeverkusenWolfsburgAway Win4-53.10
2015-02-14LilleNice1 team will not score0-01.67
2015-02-11ChelseaEvertonHome win HT & FT1-01.91
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