After analysing every game for the upcoming week, a list of the best 4 picks for the
week will be produced. These are the best bets I can find, based on odds and statistical evidence.
The objective is to have a win rate of better than 65% for the rest of the season.
I started doing this on the weekend of 2014-11-21 and will continue it until the end of the season.
Leicester have been very poor away from home defensively.
They have conceded at least 2 goals in a game in 9 of their last 10 away games.
They have an additional problem of not being able to keep the game tight in the 1st half.
They have conceded a 1st half goal in 7 of their last 10 away games.
Spurs are scoring goals at home, but have fallen a little off the CL race.
They have also been poor defensively in the 1st half of games,
conceding a 1st half goal in 8 of their last 10 home league games.
(Arsenal have not conceded a 1st half goal in 10 home games !)
Tottenham lead the EPL in average goals per game in their last 10 1st half home games (avg is 1.8).
Southampton have not blown any team off the park at home. They have managed 3 goals in a game, just once in
their last 10 home games (3-0 Over Everton). They have conceded home goals against quality opponents
( Liverpool scored 2, Man United 2 and Man City 3). The lesser teams have struggled for goals, and I expect Burnley to struggle
as well. Burnley tried playing a more attacking away style, but they conceded goals and did'nt win a game.
The only way for them to get anything here is to keep it tight, and try and sneak a win/draw in a low scoring game.
Traditional rivalry should produce a great game. Neither team can really afford to lose it.
However, United come into the game on the back of a terrific performance against Tottenham.
A formation that finally worked for van Gaal. Does he have the belief to stick with it !
United's away form is very suspect. Hard to beat but they exhibit some crazy stats.
They are the only team in the premier league that has not won a 1st half away in 11 starts.
They have scored just 3 1st half goals in 11 away games. Only Hull have scored fewer (2).
They have 4 clean sheets away all season, but have only failed to score 3 times.
Liverpool have scored 2 or more goals in each of their last 7 home games, and are undefeated in 9 at home.
Both teams are full of goals. PSV with excellent scoring numbers on the road, while Feyenoord have scored 2
or more goals in each of their last 10 at home. Scoring should not be a problem here. Head to Head these teams seem to play
open football, and generate high scoring games. 5 of the last 6 meetings have gone over 2.5 goals.
Just one game of the last 6 meetings has finished 0-0 at the half.
|Match Date||Home Team||Away Team||Prediction||Score||Odds||Res|
|2015-03-22||Liverpool||Man United||Both teams to score||1-2||1.78|
|2015-03-22||Feyenoord||PSV Eindhove||Over 2.5 Goals||2-1||1.70|
|2015-03-21||AZ Alkmaar||Cambuur||Both teams to score||3-1||1.67|
|2015-03-21||Southampton||Burnley||Under 2.5 Goals||2-0||1.85|
|2015-03-21||Tottenham||Leicester||Over 2.5 Goals||4-3||1.73|
|2015-03-15||Wolfsburg||Freiburg||Home win HT & FT||3-0||1.90|
|2015-03-15||Man United ||Tottenham||Over 2.5 Goals||3-0||1.80|
|2015-03-15||Chelsea||Southampton||Under 2.5 Goals||1-1||1.85|
|2015-03-14||Arsenal||West Ham||Home win HT & FT||3-0||2.10|
|2015-03-07||Augsburg||Wolfsburg||Over 2.5 Goals||1-0||1.70|
|2015-03-04||Newcastle||Man United||Both teams to score||0-1||1.80|
|2015-03-04||Liverpool||Burnley||Over 2.5 Goals||2-0||1.65|
|2015-03-01||Cesena||Udinese||Both teams to score||1-0||1.90|
|2015-03-01||Liverpool||Man City||Over 2.5 Goals||2-1||1.78|
|2015-03-01||Werder Breme||Wolfsburg||Over 2.5 Goals||3-5||1.57|
|2015-02-28||Hoffenheim||Mainz||Over 2.5 Goals||2-0||1.67|
|2015-02-23||Napoli||Sassuolo||Both teams to score||2-0||1.83|
|2015-02-22||Tottenham||West Ham||Home Win||2-2||1.80|
|2015-02-22||Elche||Real Madrid||1st half over 1.5 goals||0-0||2.10|
|2015-02-22||Lyon||Nantes||Over 2.5 Goals||1-0||2.05|
|2015-02-21||Mainz||Ein Frankfur||Over 2.5 Goals||3-1||1.70|
|2015-02-14||Lille||Nice||1 team will not score||0-0||1.67|
|2015-02-11||Chelsea||Everton||Home win HT & FT||1-0||1.91|
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